The ultimate success of bitcoin, hyperbitcoinization, contains the possibility of a purposeful and bright future. Inevitable mass adoption will lead to a globally dominant currency. Pushing all other competitors out means, ultimately, mooning prices. At least one theorist believes the above will happen, and further postulates one hundred million dollars per bitcoin could be in the works as early as 2030.
Hyperbitcoinization Talk Resurfaces
Daniel Krawisz doesn’t immediately grab first-time observers as a leading cryptocurrency philosopher. Mouse-colored, little Dutch boy hair, which he’ll at times flip in unintended punctuation during talks, and his generally casual demeanor could cause audience members to wonder aloud why a random stranger has taken the dais.
Mr. Krawisz doesn’t ever cite his academic credentials. He is absolutely devoid of appeals to authority, credentialism, and officialdom. He can often be heard challenging listeners to not believe him. Crypto fame of a kind came his way around Spring of 2014. As co-founder of the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute, his articles took on new meaning during bitcoin’s run up and up and up through 2017.
Hyperbitcoinization is his most enduring effort from that time, and he can be credited with the concept and neologism. “Bitcoin-induced currency demonetization, or hyperbitcoinization” is what would occur should “any hapless currency” stand “in bitcoin’s path of total world domination. If this happens, the currency will rapidly lose value as bitcoin supplants it,” he stressed. Years later, the topic has returned in some circles.
The piece is less braggadocio and more nuanced than proponents are prone to mention, but it does speak to a time in bitcoin core (BTC) history when community optimism reigned. The current store of value talk and digital gold hodl maximalism is somewhat revisionist, which more honest BTC enthusiasts concede. The discussion then was mostly about merchant adoption, medium of exchange qualities, and prospects of freeing emerging economies from legacy remittance arrangements. These attributes are no longer highlighted by BTCers.
Recently, Hyperbitcoinization: Winner Takes All (or how Bitcoin gets to $100,000,000) was posted by Coin Monks. Pseudo-anonymous author Obiwankenobit lays out Mr. Krawisz’s case anew. In a longer, mathy, graphic-filled essay, he builds the case for a hyper-hyper-hyperbitcoinization even the most optimistic BTC true believers might have trouble getting behind. Everett Roger, Laszlo Hanyecz, Friedrich Hayek, Austrian economics, S-curves, Andreas Antonopoulos, Daniel Krawisz, Satoshi Nakamoto combine to build the basic argument.
As bitcoin is accepted more around the world (and “acceptance” isn’t well defined), “the cost of rejecting bitcoin will exceed the cost of adopting it. Bitcoin will begin to assume money’s traditional roles and gain institutional and government support. It will become all money and form the backbone of a new global economy,” Obiwankenobit explains, describing the “tipping point.”
With a price hovering in the mid $6,000s at press time, the path to that eye-popping estimate seems impossible. However, he believes the current price “is 0.01% of this future value. Bitcoin is currently experiencing ‘microbubbles’ and future appreciation will continue nearly unabated until it plateaus at a stable price.”
Furthermore, BTC “affords us the opportunity to radically change our relationship with money. You will own your money. Central bank machinations will come to an end. 20 years ago we could not imagine how the internet would change our lives. In the next 20 years bitcoin will reframe our roles as citizens in a borderless, global economy.”
He doesn’t posit economic catastrophe to get there, which is refreshing. “Bitcoin can become the world’s first universal currency in part through voluntary social drivers and its inherent sound monetary policy,” he claims. Fanciful, novel ideas abound throughout his essay, and his “crystallization process” analogy is particularly innovative and fun.
He hints at the contentious debate between BTC and bitcoin cash (BCH) by assuming BTC will act in ways similar to BCH. “Like any good form of money bitcoin is divisible. In fact, by up to 100,000,000 satoshis. The satoshi will act as our base accounting unit. You will buy goods and services and be paid in satoshis.”
In the future, with something like 20% of bitcoin missing or lost, this places the “total accessible” at “16.8 million” coins when BTC inflation ends. “The list of global value of all money totals about $1.8Q,” he estimates. On his way to making this BCH-like parallel, he does some calculations: “Global value of all money = $1.8Q; divide by 16.8 million bitcoins = $107,142,857; round result = $100,000,000/bitcoin; 100,000,000 satoshis per bitcoin; $100,000,000/bitcoin ÷ 100,000,000 satoshis per bitcoin = $1 per satoshi,” allowing for micro-transactions. That sounds very familiar, and BCHers don’t have to wait.