The price of Bitcoin(BTC) has been very volatile since when it was trading between $10 and $15 in the year 2013, after which it went on a parabolic rise of $1163 in the same year. The next 18 months was a down fall for Bitcoin where it went back to the $200 mark after which it went on the upward rise, which persisted globally.
So, here’s the question? Will it fall down to three-digit figure again or will show up its plummeting pace once again?
Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com predicted Bitcoin(BTC) to drop to $4,000 prior to a rebound above $10,000 by 2019 on CNBC’s Stock Draft. When asked to explain his estimates, Gordon cited a “beautiful uptrend,” and called the recent correction down from $19,000 “inconsequential” given the gains in BTC price since 2015.
Low prices combined with favorable regulations are precisely the things institutional investors with deep pockets are looking for.
As the second quarter of 2018 will soon come to a close, the outlook on the future of the cryptocurrency market remains divided. It is crucial now, more than ever, not to lose touch of the end goal — to create a trustless decentralized financial ecosystem that is available for everyone to use.
Last month, Wall Street analyst Spencer Bogart said that the significant cryptocurrency will trade “at least” above $10,000 by the year’s end. He suggested that the reality of a deeper institutionalization of the crypto space is securing the long-term “story,” and is “overall positive” for Bitcoin’s future.
There’s another scenario which explains that miners are still heavily incentivized to mine to obtain increasingly more valuable Bitcoin tokens as a reward before the supply reaches its capacity. As of now, 17 millionth BTC has been mined, only 4 million left to mine before the 21 million BTC market cap is reached. Bitcoin reward for mining a block also halves every 210,000 blocks. As it stands, miners receive a 12.5 BTC reward for unlocking a new block. According to BitcoinBlockHalf.com, the next reward halving will happen in May 2020 — reducing the reward to 6.25 coins. When the 21 million BTC is reached, there won’t be any BTC award left for miners.
Implementation of Segwit happened after the consensus of the bitcoin community- just as Nakamoto pointed out in his white paper-
“They [nodes] vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism.”
The launch coincided with the lowering transaction fees which have dropped considerably in the past months as Segwit continues to be implemented to nodes around the world.
Analysis of the Bitcoin Price Prediction over the years
Bitcoin has slid 25% since May and around 70% since December, wherein the market cap stands at US$105.65 billion, with US$2.97 billion traded on June 24th, 2018.Mt. Gox announced rehabilitation programme and repayment plan for defunct exchange users. A deadline for the proposal is set to be February, 2019.
The Mt. Gox wallets still hold over 137,000BTC and 137,000 Bitcoin Cash, or an additional 16,753BTC at current prices. Returning these funds to users will likely result in a demand shock, similar to previous government auctions and cause bearish price action. The Bitcoin block reward halving will also result in a supply shock and is slated for May 2020.
Transactions have declined since March, when it was averaged to be 18,000.The Visa payment network processed an average of 1667 transactions per second on an average. The Visa payment network experienced an outrage for two days whereas Bitcoin has been having 99.99 % uptime since its inception. The transaction fee reduction is multifactorial. Although there’s a reduction in transactions, Segwit, which accounts for 37% of the transactions has been a contributing factor in the average fee decline.
Segwit transactions occupy lesser block space than non-Segwit ones, due to which daily usage has spiked, eventually due to the proposed SegWit2x hard fork which failed to activate.
Transaction batching is the main cause of this decline, where one transaction is sent to many addresses at once instead of each transaction being sent individually.
Before closing in, let’s see some of the predictions by the crypto gurus:
Mike Novogratz, once known to be famous Wall street hedge fund manager, is betting big on the bitcoin boom in general as his price prediction suggests: “Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2018,” Novogratz said. It easily could.”Going much more long-term, Novogratz said it was within the realm of possibility that the bitcoin market cap could one day reach the current market cap of gold, which is around a whopping $8 trillion USD.”
Max Keiser,firebrand bitcoin Guru projects the bitcoin price target to be $15k soon, and $100,000 on the horizon.
Adam Back, an OG cypherpunk, opinionated that the bitcoin price will be hitting $100,000, echoing Max Keiser’s aforementioned prediction.
John McAfee, a bitcoin aficionado thinks $1 million per bitcoin will be reality by the end of 2020.
The scarce quality of BTC makes it prone for hyperinflation which enunciates that its price will continue to see upward pressure in the upcoming months or years to come.We just have to wait and see who’s predictions come true!