A lot has been said about Bitcoin (BTC) $6863.9 -0.03% and its future. Many have weighed in on whether the cryptocurrency is going to surge past its January all-time-high or continue to decline in value. Here’s a recap of how experts weighed in on the matter throughout the past few months.
NICHOLAS COLAS: BITCOIN ‘WAS ABSOLUTELY A BUBBLE’
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that Bitcoin “was absolutely a bubble based on the futures launch in December and a lot of enthusiasm for the asset.” He also followed up by urging investors to be careful, as interest towards the cryptocurrency is declining. According to him, this “kills” the possibility of new money coming into the market.
Colas based his statements on trends in Google searches. According to him, Bitcoin has seen fewer searches compared to the end of 2017 — when the cryptocurrency peaked at around $20,000. However, willingly or not, he failed to touch on the fact that the interest towards Bitcoin’s underlying technology is growing rampantly.
RAN NEU-NER: ‘NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BE BUYING’
According to Ran Neu-Ner, there were 27,000 blockchain startups in 2017. In the first two quarters of 2018, though, this number was already surpassed, with the numbers reaching upwards of 28,000. It’s safe to say that interest towards the field is far from declining.
However, Neu-Ner said on June 28 that he thinks the market will continue to go down: Right now my money is on the market continuing to go down, and going down to about $5,350 which is the next up. And the time horizon there is in about the next two weeks.
Yet, Neu-Ner also said that “now is a great time to be buying” if one believes in Bitcoin and/or blockchain technology.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: BITCOIN IS A BUY BELOW $5K
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, touched on the need for a consolidated base of people who “truly believe” in Bitcoin. According to him, that’s especially important now as the prices are declining. He also added that the cryptocurrency’s 2017 rally was fueled by a large number of investors who jumped on the bandwagon, joining those who were believers before that.
He shared the opinion that Bitcoin is a buy below $5,000. However, El-Erian also said that he sees a future where digital currencies are strong but there would also be a lot of governmental involvement in them.
ARTHUR HAYES: $50K THIS YEAR?
According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder & CEO at Bitmex, we might have already come to the point of stability. He says that as the prices drop, we see a lot less volatility. He describes this as a problem, and associates high volatility with greater chances of a price spike: You want as much volatility as possible to have as much chance that Bitcoin goes to $50,000, $100,000, $1,000,000, whatever that high number is.
Hayes also holds that the time span for a potential increase in price will shorten substantially because of the much greater involvement of investors in the market. He also touched that positive regulatory decisions could be a key factor for a rampant price surge: We’re one positive regulatory decision away, maybe an ETF approved by the SEC, to climbing through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of the year.
BRIAN KELLY: ETHEREUM IS BETTER
The founder and CEO of popular cryptocurrency trading firm BKCM LLC and active trader Brian Kelly noted that Bitcoin is not the only possible long-term investment opportunity. In June he outlined that Ethereum has performed a little bit better in terms of relative value. He also pointed out that, while Bitcoin breached its lows in June 2018, Ethereum didn’t do so, explaining: Relative value wise, Ethereum has been trading a little bit better than bitcoin. So, if I were going to be long in this market, as I am, I would overweight Ethereum at this point in time.
Kelly remains bullish on Bitcoin, as he also outlined a few reasons why the largest cryptocurrency is far from being dead.
TOM LEE: ‘WE STILL THINK BITCOIN CAN REACH $25K’ IN 2018
Permabull Tom Lee came forward earlier this year and predicted a $25,000 price by the end of 2018. Later, he reiterated on his position, saying that Bitcoin is still a great “store of value” and that the technology behind it works “really well in terms of digital transactions.”
Just a few days ago, Lee, who is currently a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that he still thinks that Bitcoin can reach $25,000 by the end of the year. His main take on that is the rising difficulty in Bitcoin mining: The reason bitcoin looks really good here is the cost of mining around $7,000 fully loaded,” he stated, “And the difficulty is rising. So by the end of the year, it’s going to be $9,000.
Lee said that “applying the historical average of 2.5 times mining costs would imply fair value over $20,000, roughly $22,000. We still think bitcoin can reach $25,000 by the end of the year or something like that.”